Francisco Rivas Ríos.
The extreme climate variability.
Drought is not the only problem facing the region of Azuero, as a result of climate change. Two contrasting news explains the consequences of extreme climate variability resulting from this phenomenon.
The first news was published by the newspaper El Siglo on April 8, 2015, under the title: "The Estivaná dying, fear running out of water ." The second was published in La Prensa on September 8, 2015 with the title: "Two thousand people affected. River flood affects Water supply in Los Santos ".
In the first news Regional Director IDAAN, Melquiades Zambrano said that " cannot be guaranteed that the river Estivaná -during the next summers -
provide enough to feed the population of Llano de Piedra flow". In this situation she reported that a good 420 feet deep to 200 gallons per minute would be enabled to supply this population.
Meanwhile, September 8, 2015 La Prensa reported that: "A growing strongest Estivaná River
supports more than 2,000 residents of the town of Llano de Piedra, in
the province of Los Santos, without water because they broke the pipes
well that supplies the place. This is the length of pipe
that is above the ford on the river mentioned in the pathway Piedras
Llano-El Faldar, which was affected by the flood . "This time indicated that the four-inch pipe 40 caliber was busted, so they sent a handyman to repair the institution.
Both
news is sampled from one of the characteristics of climate change: the
impact of unsustainable human activities, to which the natural climate
variability adds. It is important to remember the UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article 1,
defines climate change as a change attributed directly or indirectly to
human activity, climate that alters the composition of the global
atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable periods of time.
The natural variable (Arco Seco) and environmental degradation.
Natural
climate variability derived from the weather pattern known as the "Arco
Seco" is pronounced seasons of drought and lack of rain even in periods
in other regions of the natural climate variability derived from the
weather pattern known as the "Arco Seco" is pronounced seasons of
drought and lack of rain even in periods than in other regions of the
country are in the rainy season. Arco Seco region has an
area of 1, 070,803.80 hectares, 263.624 inhabitants and a density of 25
inhabitants per square kilometer. It includes the provinces of Cocle, Herrera and Los Santos.
The
impact of the climatic characteristics of the "Arco Seco" River Subbasin Estivaná, for example, has a process of uncontrolled
deforestation, with a sharp increase in erosion rates, rising the risk
of desertification. The sub can be seen insufficient protection of riparian forests and water catchment areas. Deforestation
continues to make way for the expansion of an unsustainable
agricultural frontier, causing erosion, soil degradation and
desertification.
Additionally,
the placement of liquid and solid waste from pig farming and dairy
Estivaná directly into the river and other tributaries of the river La
Villa, untreated, produces pollution and poor water quality. In the case of pig activities, handling of wastewater is almost zero. Less
than 30% of the industries in this activity waste reused or meet
infrastructure management of organic waste and the pig trying to comply
with it, most systems do not work properly.
In
short, human actions that contribute to climate change in the Arco Seco
are, among others: deforestation, fires, overgrazing, indiscriminate
use of agrochemicals, intensive exploitation of groundwater, removal of
mangroves, improper land use, setting high P (phosphorus).
According
to the Climate Change Unit and MIAMBIENTE Desertification, dry forest
with the Sabana Veragüense and Ngäbe Bugle part of the " dry and degraded land ", as seen in the map below:
Scenarios Niño, 2016.
On
18 -19 November 2015, the Regional Committee for Water Resources
Central American Integration System met, under the XLVIII Climate Forum
Central America (MESOAMERICAN FORUM III), in the city of Santo Domingo,
Dominican Republic.
The Forum produced the following theses that serve as a starting point the analysis for this article:
I
. That surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have
increased at or typical of an El Niño intense higher levels and such a
scenario the forecast period of this Perspective (D15-EFM16) will remain
for most .
II . That
from the month of September, temperatures in the tropical Atlantic
Ocean have shown positive anomalies (than normal warmer conditions),
even reaching very high values in October and during the period
covered by this forecast will continue to increase .
III . The
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO for its acronym in English, which
modulates the frequency and intensity of El Niño and La Niña), is
currently under favoring surface warming of the Equatorial Pacific
Ocean.
IV . The
Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation have remained
neutral or positive phase in recent months, but that it is possible to
turn to the negative phase in the second half of winter (January-March
2016 ).
V
. That cold season push for the forecast period this perspective be
considered within the normal range, with low activity at the beginning
of the season (November and December), but increasing thereafter with a
consensus forecast of 12 and 14 digs north of the region and the
Caribbean, and the possibility of 2-3 of these systems can reach a
moderate to strong intensity in the months of January to March.
As
the air temperature is expected that the maximum temperature (daytime)
occurs above its average value, mostly related to the warming that
presents the Tropical Pacific Ocean. For minimum temperature (night) is expected to be recorded below normal, due to the absence of clouds.
El Niño exacerbate structural, environmental degradation Arco Seco Panama. The
following data are taken from the document entitled: developing
strategies for sustainable development for the provinces of Cocle,
Herrera, Los Santos and Veraguas, prepared by the National Council for
Sustainable Development of Panama (CONADES).
In
the area of Arco Seco, records of annual rainfall does not exceed
1,000 mm of rain, and periods of drought during the dry season extending
up to seven months, primarily affecting soil degradation; circumstance
is compounded by inadequate management and land use (logging, burning,
overgrazing, crops in unsuitable soils, etc.) practices, where erosion
is more pronounced each day, reflected in a loss of productive capacity
of soils and increased sedimentation rates in rivers and streams.
Reducing
flows of major rivers in the region, grazing areas and water
availability for use in agricultural, industrial and domestic
activities, has led an intensive and uncontrolled exploitation of
underground water resources, which availability and extraction rates are
unknown; with the consequent advance of desertification in the region.
As
a result of this situation, we have the degradation of more than 2
million hectares of land in the central provinces equivalent to 27% of
the total land area; sediment flow into rivers and
increased siltation and saturation processes almost all the streams and
rivers of the Pacific slope, with consequent damage to the water
treatment equipment, hydropower, irrigation and drainage, with
repercussions on the Marine ecosystem.
We are prepared for the phenomenon La Niña?
The
Climate Prediction Center, CPC (for its acronym in English) of the
National Weather Service of the United States belonging to the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA and the -IRI- Institute,
reported for the first time, 17 December 2015 that the probability of
development of La Niña for July-August-September 2016 continues to
climb, now exceeding 30%.
In
this very short, it is reported that according to the consolidation of
forecasts based on the ocean surface temperature of the Climate
Prediction Center of the National Weather Service of the United States,
there is a 79% chance of having the phenomenon of La Niña end of 2016.
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