Francisco Rivas Ríos.
Context: economic slowdown in Panama.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised downwards
its forecast for economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean this year
from 0.9% to 0.5%. However, the projection of Panama remains at around 6%,
which makes it the continent's economy with higher economic growth this year.
A similar projection has the Panamanian Ministry of
Economy and Finance and other multilateral institutions like the World Bank
(6.3%).
Alejandro Werner, director of the Western Hemisphere
Department of the IMF, said that Panama has been slowing from very high rates
that are the product of an appropriate policy framework and implementing a
major infrastructure program, with the Canal expansion , Panama and other
investments. As they concluded the works, will see a slowdown in construction
and a favorable impact on services when the expanded canal is operating at
100%, explained Werner.
Moreover, the United States has signaled the start of a
cycle of rising interest rates before year end. This could intensify market
volatility and exchange rate pressures in Latin America and pose challenges for
the formulation of economic policy in the region. On the positive side,
however, it is expected to stimulate trade generated by the robust growth in
the United States, which would take place if the Fed decides to raise interest
rates, boost economic activity, especially in Mexico and Central America.
Internal risks are equally worrying. In particular, the
high level of corporate debt in the context of a deterioration in external
financial conditions could be an obstacle for much greater investment than
currently planned. Furthermore, in the long term, the projected rebound in
economic activity in 2016 and beyond will not materialize if the confidence of
businesses and consumers remains stuck at the current low levels (or even
further back).
Political and legal instruments to the new relationship
with Russia.
Panama seeks to increase the list of exportable products,
seeking new markets. In 2015, cocoa exports to South Africa were initiated.
Russian market. Grommet classified as product prices can reach
commercialization in the Russian market of up to $ 10 a pound.
Meanwhile Dalotta and FASPA companies recently signed
with the German importer Don Limon, a purchase agreement for the production and
sale of 50 hectares of pineapple, yellow melon and watermelon, to be well
marketed in Europe in Asia.
This effort takes place with great difficulty, because
Panama has a service economy and trade (85% GDP).
Since 2008 Panama intensified their approaches to Russia,
through the exchange of diplomatic and trade missions, and taking legal action.
In December 2014, representatives of the Ministries of
Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Panama and the Russian Federation, held in
Panama the Fourth Meeting of Consultation, to discuss bilateral and
international agenda issues of mutual interest.
As a result of the Fourth Meeting, Panama and Russia
signed the document to remove the visa regime between the two countries.
According to the document the citizens of a State may enter, leave, transit go
and stay in the territory of another State without a visa for 90 days out of
180 from the date of first entry. The document was signed by Russian Foreign
Minister Sergey Lavrov, and the Vice President and Minister of Foreign Affairs
of Panama Panamanian Isabel Saint Malo de Alvarado. l agreement for the
development of the Russian-Panamanian relations in different spheres, come into
force on February 8, 2015.
In April 2015 Vice President and Foreign Minister Isabel
de Saint Malo and the Russian Foreign Minister, Alexander Konovalov, signed an
extradition treaty.
Trade between Panama and Russia is realistic?
Panama seeks new markets for its traditional agricultural
products (bananas, oil palm, cocoa) and nontraditional (melon,
watermelon). It is urgent to promote these exports to address
environmental, social and economic crisis in the Central Provinces (Cocle, Los
Santos, Herrera and Veraguas), also Chiriquí and Bocas del Toro.
But agricultural production faces difficulties: low
productivity, high costs and low productivity. Possibly the Russian business is
not so much to buy crops, such as selling to the government of Panama
technologies to create a competitive agricultural supply in the international
market.
Another crucial aspect of these new relationships, is to
create opportunities for Russian companies to participate in major
infrastructure projects (roads, hospitals, water treatment plants, affordable
housing, power plants, etc.) Russia's role cannot be solely the consumer
"desserts".
In November 2015 the Ambassador of Panama, Miguel H.
Lecaro Barcenas, presented the credentials before the President, Vladimir
Putin, informal ceremony in the Grand Kremlin Palace in Moscow. The Bárcenas
ambassador expressed the interest of promoting a broad agenda of cooperation
that will contribute to achieving the objectives of Sustainable Development.
For the words of Mr. Barcenas than plain diplomatic lyric
is important concrete initiatives in the field of sustainable development.
Currently the service economy of Panama, with all its expanded channel faces
structural weaknesses: 1) the poor quality of water by the contamination of
surface and groundwater sources; 2) the process of desertification of large
areas in the center of the country, threatening agricultural production and
livelihoods of many communities; 3) a greater number of communities living in
areas of natural hazards; 4) inadequate management of solid waste throughout
the national territory; 5) turistic development specializing only in shopping
tourism and conventions.
These are areas in which the Panamanian government must
make significant investments and are also available as investment
opportunities. Desalination plants, atmospheric water, commercial reforestation
of thousands of hectares, plants convert municipal waste into electricity, etc.
In conclusion, they open new opportunities for mutually beneficial trade and economic relationship between Panama and Russia.
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